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Has the Bear Woken Up?
Even with the U.S. dollar trading off of the highs achieved today, and posting a daily decline, gold was unable to sustain any price gains. August Comex futures are currently trading at $1,241.60, which is a net decline of five dollars on the day (-0.40%). Although gold futures closed above a critical level of support at $1,238, it did breach that price point when it traded to a low of $1,236.20. The support level was created back in December and January when pricing reached those lows. From there, prices stabilized and in mid-December began a rally which would take gold over $130 higher to $1,365. What makes this recent selloff unique and different than other corrective periods that have occurred since the end of 2015 is that for the first time gold prices have traded to a lower low than the previous low. Immediately following the apex and all-time record price of $1,900 per ounce in August 2011, gold, for the most part, traded with consistent lower highs followed by lower lows. That trend continued up until the end of 2015 when gold pricing reached a low of $1,040. From those lows, gold would rally to the highest trading point since the correction when prices touched $1,377 per ounce in June 2016. Prices then corrected to a low of $1,126 per ounce well above the previous low. What would follow would be a series of shallow rallies moving to higher highs, followed by brief corrections that would conclude with a higher low. Then in September 2017 gold prices once again challenged the highs achieved earlier reaching $1,362, this would be the first of four occurrences in which gold prices would challenge and trade above $1,360 per ounce.On the last of the four occurrences gold reached a high of $1,369 before it began its correction. The major difference during this current correction is that today gold traded to a lower low than the previous low.At the same time, technical traders identified a “death cross”, which is an indication that a short-term correction has now become a long-term trend. These two events occurring in a short time span could be the first technical evidence that the bullish market sentiment which has been so prevalent in gold since the end of the multiyear correction has now ended. It could, in fact, be signaling that the bear has woken up. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 18020 The Gold Forecast
Gold Attempts to Find Price Support - 05/18/2018
Gold has been attempting to form a baseline level of support over the last three trading days and finished fractionally higher in trading today. Gold Comex futures finished up approximately $2.50 today and closed at $1,291.90 (most active June contract). Gold closed dramatically lower this week after losing $28 in trading on Tuesday. Tuesday’s selloff was significant in that it broke below the psychological support level of $1,300, which is also where the 200-day moving average is fixed. In fact, damage from the selloff on Tuesday resulted in the largest weekly decline seen in gold over the last five months. Selling pressure has been largely a result of a strengthening U.S. dollar. However, this week it was rising yields from U.S. bonds and notes that added a new level of selling pressure. The dollar has gained approximately 5.5% in value since the week of February 12. The dollar rally, which began in mid-February, marked the conclusion of an extended correction occurring over the calendar year of 2017. The extended correction began at the end of 2016 when the dollar traded as high as 103.60. Throughout 2017 the dollar corrected, trading to a low just above 88. The net result was a 16% decline in the dollar index. The fundamental forces at play could continue to manifest strong bearish sentiment towards the precious metals complex. Superpower Stare Down However, two geopolitical wildcards could emerge as extremely bullish factors for gold: the current trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as the upcoming summit between the United States and North Korea. In both cases it seems that all countries involved are posturing, a stare down of sorts that typically occurs at the beginning of any negotiation. The outcome of the current trade dispute could undoubtedly shift in market sentiment favoring demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Negotiations this week did not produce any solutions that could alleviate the current trade tensions between these two superpowers. The outcome of talks this week seem to deepen the chasm between our two countries. President Donald Trump said Thursday that China had become too “spoiled” and he had lowered his expectations for negotiations. Although the plans for a historic summit between North Korea and the United States are still intact, this week North Korea threatened to cancel the summit. The White House interpreted this statement as posturing and expects this behavior to continue up until the summit begins. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 5038 The Gold Forecast
Equal Parts of Dollar Strength and Gold Buying Leaves Prices Flat - 08/31/2018
Gold prices continue to be pulled by outside factors such as a strong dollar and dynamic U.S. equities markets creating a favorable and continued risk-on market sentiment. Today traders and investors bid gold prices higher with a strong U.S. dollar of equal force negating any realized gains. see graph at https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/kgx_831.png According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) as of 4:15 PM Eastern standard time, spot gold is currently trading down $0.10 on the day. On closer inspection, it was dollar strength that created $5.30 worth of headwinds moving gold pricing lower, and trading resulted in an increase of $5.20. Even with the recent selling pressure in the U.S. dollar, it has lost a little over 2% in value over the last two trading weeks. The value of the dollar index still gained just about 6% since the lows in February when the dollar index was fixed at 88.20. Now that the last trading day in August has concluded, gold pricing has declined for five consecutive months. During the same period of time, the dollar index has gained in value for the last four consecutive months. In fact, the month of March was the only month this year that resulted in the dollar index losing value. During the same period, U.S. equities traded to all-time record highs, creating one of the strongest bull market runs, and therefore favorable risk on market sentiment. The strong growth in US equities coupled with dollar strength have put tremendous pressure on gold pricing. Gold has lost over $150 per ounce in value since April of this year when gold traded to a high just over $1,365 per ounce. With a high probability that the Federal Reserve will continue its monetary policy of quantitative normalization, it is likely that the dollar will remain strong and gain value throughout the remainder of the year. Add to that the tepid reaction gold pricing has had throughout this year due to geopolitical uncertainty. These factors could continue to weigh heavily on gold pricing throughout the remainder of this year. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 747 The Gold Forecast
A Week of Recovery, A Week of Price Consolidation - 05/25/2018
As far as gold pricing is concerned, it would be fair to say that during the last eight trading days, price movement in gold indicated a week of price consolidation followed by a reversal. The recovery immediately followed the dramatic selloff that occurred a week ago Tuesday when gold prices plunged over $28 in a single trading day. This resulted in significant technical chart damage as pricing dropped below the 200-day moving average. This selloff was followed by a total of seven consecutive trading days with very little price change between the open and closing prices. There is a fundamental distinction between how a Western and Eastern market technician views price action over time. This significant difference is at the core of how market technicians differ in the way they interpret price charts. See Chart @ https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/candlestick-bar-chart.gif Both technicians create a daily chart by using the same four components: the opening and closing prices, and the high and low of the cycle. While the Western technician will create a simple bar chart from this data set, the Japanese counterpart will generate a candlestick. The key difference is that a Japanese technician puts major importance on the relationship between where the market opens and then closes on a daily cycle. The Western technician puts his primary focus on a close to close connection from one day to the next. The Eastern technical philosophy believes that the most important information is derived from the comparison of where a market opens and where a market close. The eastern technical trader sees each trading day as a battle; the candlestick will therefore represent the outcome of that battle. If the market closes above its open, it is drawn in green indicating that the bullish faction dominated market activity. If the market closes below its open, it is drawn in red indicating bearish factors dominated market activity See chart @ https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/doji-candlestick-types_0.png See Chart @ https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/doji1.png Another key distinction between these two technical approaches is that the Japanese technician views a daily candlestick that results in the same open and closing price with extreme reverence. This candlestick type is called a “doji.” The doji represents a point in time when neither the bullish or bearish faction is able to have absolute control of price action and is one of the most essential candlestick types to the Japanese market technician. The occurrence of six consecutive “doji” candles sends a powerful message to those who understand Japanese candlestick interpretation, in that they realize that it indicates either extreme consolidation or a point in time that a key reversal or pivot point will occur. Those who incorporate Japanese candlestick methodology within their analysis were far ahead of the game this week, gaining insight above and beyond those who would do not include this trading style into their overall analysis. We want to invite all of our You tube Subscribers to sign up for a FREE two week trial of the daily report. Simply go to https://thegoldforecast.com/pricing to take advantage of our FREE offer Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 7715 The Gold Forecast
Dollar Rally Subsides as Selling Pressure in Gold Increases - 07/06/2018
Gold gained value on Tuesday and Thursday (trading was closed in observance of the Fourth of July on Wednesday), the first occurrence of two consecutive up trading days, in which gold closed above its opening price and resulted in a moderate price increase, since June 14. At that time, gold was trading just above $1,300 per ounce, after staging a moderate rally which began on May 21 when gold was trading just above $1,280. From June 14 gold prices traded dramatically under pressure to a low of $1,239 on July 3. Following the Fourth of July holiday, gold gained fractionally to close at $1,258. Recent price pressure for gold has been mostly a direct result of a strengthening U.S. dollar. However, recent weakness in gold prices has been a combination of a strong U.S. dollar and selling pressure. Over the last week, we have seen the dollar begin to trade lower after hitting resistance at 95 on the dollar index. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken losing almost a half percent in trading today closing at 93.735 on the dollar index. However, dollar strength today could not overcome selling pressure which resulted from today’s robust jobs report. Gold futures lost $2.80 in trading today and is currently fixed at $1,256 per ounce, this basis the most active August Comex contract. Spot gold also traded lower on the day giving up $2.70 of value to be fixed at $1,254.60. According to the Kitco Gold Index, dollar weakness contributed a five dollar gain in terms of gold pricing. However, it was $7.70 of selling pressure that took gold prices lower. Economic strength has led market sentiment to favor the risk on-asset class, resulting in higher equity prices. It has also underscored a high probability that the Federal Reserve’s current hawkish monetary policy and proposed two more rate hikes this year will remain in play. The key to gold’s price direction over the next few weeks will continue to be based upon dollar strength or weakness. One of the most significant factors to the future direction of the dollar will be directly related to the trade dispute and whether it morphs into a full-blown trade war. The current trade dispute between the United States and China seems to be widening with the real potential for elevating into a trade war which would have a profound impact on our current economic growth. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 3431 The Gold Forecast
Gold Finishes Above Key Levels - 10/12/2018
Gold had one of its most dynamic days yesterday as it opened below $1,200 per ounce and closed $30 higher, settling at $1,227 per ounce. Today gold prices have retreated slightly, giving back a measured portion of yesterday’s gains. As of 4:35 PM Eastern standard time, gold futures are currently down $6.30, with the most active December Comex contract fixed at $1,221.30. Yesterday’s strong uptick and price gains were a result of a falling U.S. equities market and dollar weakness. On Wednesday and Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 5%, declining by 1,300 points. Today the Dow has gained back 1.15% as it traded 287 points higher, closing at 25,339.99. The NASDAQ composite gained 2.29% in trading today with a gain of 167 points. The tech-heavy composite index is now at 7,496.89. The dollar index also recovered slightly gaining almost a quarter percent and is currently fixed at 94.935, after adding today’s gains of +0.229 points. Dollar strength, a rebounding U.S. equities market, and the upcoming meeting between the presidents of both the United States and China in November has resulted in gold having a mild round of profit-taking to close out the week. What can we take away from this week’s wild upside move and today’s measured retracement? First and foremost, for the first time in quite a while, we saw gold act as a traditional safe haven asset along with bonds. The flight from equities to gold was extremely short-lived. However, it confirmed one of the primary conventional intrinsic components of gold: its role as a safe haven asset. Secondly, on a technical level, yesterday’s strong price advance took current pricing above $1,200, a key psychological level of either resistance or support, and more importantly above the 50- day moving average. The last occurrence of gold closing above its 50-day moving average was on April 20. Lastly, yesterday’s strong gains took gold prices above the .618% retracement which is currently at $1,217.60. This retracement is from an extremely long data set beginning at the end of 2016 when gold was trading at $1,124 per ounce, up to this year’s record highs at $1,369 per ounce. Although today gold lost some of yesterday’s gains, it still is effectively trading above the 0.618% retracement. Based on our technical studies we are currently putting support at $1,218 with major support at $1,200 per ounce. We see the current level of resistance at 1,240 to 1,246 which is based upon the 50% retracement as well as lows seen in December of last year. Most importantly yesterday’s dynamic upside move resulted in gold trading out of its defined and narrow trading range for the first time since August. If gold can effectively continue to trade above $1,218 per ounce, it could move to higher ground. If gold does move higher over the next couple of weeks, it will confirm that this week’s move above the 50-day moving average is signaling an end to the long and extended correction as market sentiment shifts back to a bullish demeanor. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 849 The Gold Forecast
Could Gold Be Finding Price Support? - 08/17/2018
Make no mistake about it; this was a terrible week for those wishing to see gold prices move higher. In fact, gold prices lost almost 3% on the week - one of the most significant weekly drops in over a year. However, the last two trading days have provided an indication that gold pricing might, in fact, be finding some price support. Our technical studies have indicated that $1,178 is a critical price point for gold futures. This price point is a 0.78% Fibonacci retracement from an extremely long data set. This dataset looks at price action from December 2016 up to current pricing. Above this price point is the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement which occurs at $1,218 per ounce. Throughout the month of June and the first part of August, gold prices traded right around that price point. It seems as though gold prices were forming a base and attempting to find support before this week’s price decline which occurred on Monday and Wednesday of this week. During those two days, gold pricing dropped approximately $40 in value and traded to a low of $1,180 in December futures. Thursday’s price action was unique in that, although there was a $21 differential between the high and low of that day, gold prices rebounded sharply, which resulted in closing only a couple of dollars from its opening price. What was most impressive about the price recovery on Thursday was how dramatically gold pricing rebounded after reaching a low of $1,167 per ounce, before closing at $1,183. Today gold futures are currently trading up by approximately five dollars, and the most active December Comex contract is presently fixed at $1,189. In fact, physical gold is actually faring better in terms of price gain today. As of 3:30 PM Eastern standard time, spot gold is currently trading up $8.60 and fixed at $1,182.30. The majority of this price increase is directly related to dollar weakness contributing $5.50 of value per ounce. The remaining $3.10 gain is directly attributable to traders bidding up the precious yellow metal. Declines in gold pricing over the last couple of months have been directly tied to U.S. dollar strength. It is the dollar which is leading gold prices, and not the other way around. Over the last couple of days, the dollar has been losing value, and today is currently trading off by over half a percent at 96.005. It is yesterdays and today’s decline in dollar value that has been instrumental in taking gold prices from the recent lows to higher ground. Although it is much too early to tell, recent activity could, in fact, be signaling that the dollar has found some real resistance and gold pricing has found substantial support. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 916 The Gold Forecast
Gold Futures Close Below $1,200 - 09/14/2018
Gold pricing took a moderate hit today with the most active December Comex contract losing $9.40 to be currently fixed at $1,198.80 per ounce. After trading to its highest level this month when gold traded to $1,218 yesterday, a surge in dollar strength today put dramatic pressure on gold pricing. Once again, gold futures closed lower on the week, posting a fractional decline of about one dollar. As of 4:35 PM Eastern standard time, spot gold is trading at $1,193.80, after subtracting a net decline of $7.10 on the day. Most of the lower pricing today is directly attributable to dollar strength, which took away $5.20 in value. The remaining loss of $1.90 today was a result of selling pressure. Dollar strength was a direct result of favorable economic data. A Federal Reserve report released today revealed that industrial production rose 0.4% in August. This was above expectations by about 0.10% and marks the third consecutive monthly increase. The U.S. dollar is currently trading at 94.96, which is a net gain of 44 points on the day (+0.47%). Favorable economic data was highly supportive of the dollar today. As reported in MarketWatch, “The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for September climbed to 100.8, compared with expectations of 97, marking its second-highest reading since 2014.” According to MarketWatch, over the past year output is up by 4.9%. “Capacity utilization rose to 78.1% in August, the highest rate since April. The capacity utilization rate reflects the limits to operating the nation’s factories, mines, and utilities. It is still below pre-recession levels, above 80%, that could fan production costs and prices.” According to Bloomberg, ‘President Donald Trump instructed aides on Thursday to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products despite his Treasury secretary’s attempt to restart talks with Beijing to resolve the trade war,’ according to four people familiar with the matter.” As has been the case over the last few months, it is dollar strength or weakness that has been the most significant underlying factor moving gold prices. All eyes next week will be focused towards the trade relations between the United States and China looking to see if the two superpowers move farther away from a trade dispute, and closer to a trade war. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 722 The Gold Forecast
A Tough Week for Gold - 06/29/2018
Today’s modest price increase has had little effect on the weekly tally. As of 3:30 PM Eastern standard time, gold futures (August 2018 Comex contract) are trading $1.80 higher on the day, and currently fixed at $1252.80. Considering gold opened on Monday at approximately $1,272 per ounce, this week’s activity resulted in a decline of $20. Today’s modest advance is not based in any part on buyers bidding up gold pricing. Instead, it is a combination of moderate selling pressure and the U.S. dollar trading lower on the day. Physical gold is currently fixed at $1,251. According to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX), today’s modest advance contains a decline in pricing of $5.50 directly attributable to traders actively selling gold. It is dollar weakness that has more than compensated for selling pressure adding $8.50 value. The net result is a modest advance today of three dollars. On a technical basis, the completion of a ‘Death Cross’ pattern on Monday may have signaled the point in time in which a short-term correction has now become the beginning of a bear market. On Tuesday gold prices opened at 78% retracement, which is fixed at $1,267 and closed well below that price point at $1,260. The fact that gold closed below this support level also was an indication of potentially lower pricing. As reported by MarketWatch, Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said that gold prices are “likely to remain under pressure for much of the next quarter. We believe the Fed remains on a path of higher interest rates and balance sheet run-off, providing support for the U.S. dollar and pressuring gold prices.” Given the existing trade dispute between the United States and China, Canada, and the EU, the safe-haven aspect of gold has certainly not been prevalent in current market sentiment. At least for now, gold has lost its safe-haven luster. It is dollar strength that has been the underlying force taking gold pricing lower. Since the lows of February, the dollar has gained almost 6% in value. Gold has incurred a great price decline during the second quarter of 2018, losing 5.5% in value. It will be dollar strength or weakness that will be the most significant influence on gold pricing during the next quarter. This week the U.S. dollar index traded and closed above 95, which is a long-standing major resistance price point. Up until today, the dollar had been fractionally above that price point. The U.S. dollar lost almost 8/10% in trading today, closing at 94.35. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 777 The Gold Forecast
The Quiet Before the Storm - 06/08/2018
Today marks the first day of a weeklong timeline that will include a series of events that will profoundly impact the financial markets and the geopolitical fabric for years to come. Today the Group of Seven began its meeting in Québec. Although President Trump will only be in attendance for a single day, his words and actions have the potential to create a deeper chasm between the United States and the other leaders of the G7. Ahead of today’s meeting, Trump has already begun his war of words through a series of tweets targeting the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the French President Emmanuel Macron. President Trump is on record as having threatened both Canada and France with higher tariffs unless they change policies that he believes are unfair and unbalanced to the United States. Prior to Trump leaving for the G7 summit, he told reporters that “We’re going to deal with the unfair trade practices. If you look at what Canada, Mexico, European Union all of them have been doing to use for many decades, we have to change that.” As reported in MarketWatch, “French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, angered by President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, have signaled that they will no longer try to cajole him and are prepared to form the agenda for the global economy without him. Their stance raises questions about the future of the informal group that has set the agenda for the global economy since the 1970s.” This meeting will be the first of three significant events occurring over the next week with the United States-North Korean summit set to commence on June 12, and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting to conclude the following day on June 13. Although it is highly anticipated that next week’s FOMC meeting will result in an interest rate hike (according to the CME’s fed watch tool there is a 91.3% probability of a rate hike), it is the U.S.-North Korean summit that contains the most enormous amount of pure uncertainty of any of these events. It was highly expected that there would be extreme friction between the United States and the other members of the Group of Seven, and a rate hike by the Fed is perceived as almost a certainty. However, the outcome of next week’s summit in Singapore is unknown and could result in the surprising repercussions affecting both the financial markets and geopolitical fabric. For now, the financial markets are reacting as if it is the quiet before the storm with the safe-haven asset gold moving fractionally higher, and the U.S. dollar and U.S. equities having modest gains on the day. Next week certainly has a potential to break the current muted action evident in the financial markets. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 2217 The Gold Forecast
Gold Finds Support After Trading to $1,302 - 05/04/2018
Today’s jobs report came in below expectations suggesting that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates aggressively while maintaining a tightening of its monetary policy. This, along with renewed concern about a looming trade dispute between the United States and China, was supportive of gold pricing. According to Business Day, “Senior Chinese and American officials concluded two days of negotiations late Friday afternoon with no deal and no date set for further talks, as the United States stepped up its demands for Chinese concessions to avert a potential trade war.” This week’s discussions did little to dampen fears of an imminent trade war between the two largest economies, with both the United States and China threatening to initiate deep tariffs on tens of billions of dollars of each other’s exports. Although gold is trading lower on the week, its recovery on Wednesday and Thursday indicate that a potential bottom occurred ending the most recent correction. See Chart at https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/gold_w_star_may_4.png There was a confluence of technical indicators supporting this assumption. The lows gold traded to this week occurred at the 200-day moving average, which intersected with a 50% Fibonacci retracement. A Three River Morning Star was identified consisting of daily candles on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Today’s higher pricing creates a confirming candle to the Morning Star pattern. Gold is trading modestly higher, up $2.20, with June futures currently at $1,314.90. Dollar strength continued to provide headwinds limiting any substantial gains in the precious metals complex. Over the last 14 trading days, the dollar index has closed higher on 11 occasions. The U.S. dollar gained 2/10% today and is currently fixed at 92.44 Our technical studies indicate strong support at $1,300. However, should that price point be breached, gold could trade as low as $1,288. The first resistance level occurs at $1,330, with major resistance at $1,365, a price point which gold has not been able to break above even after multiple attempts. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 750 The Gold Forecast
A More Hawkish Federal Reserve Continues to Pressure Gold Prices - 09/28/2018
Although gold prices have traded higher today, prices have declined this week, this month, as well as the last two quarters. As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, gold futures are trading up by $7.90 and fixed at $1,195.30 per ounce. This month’s FOMC meeting resulted in a highly anticipated rate hike of 1/4%. More importantly, it laid the groundwork for one more rate hike this year. The CME’s FedWatch tool is predicting that there is a 79.2% probability that there will be one last rate hike in December. The more hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve has reignited selling pressure in gold as it has created strong tailwinds taking the U.S. dollar higher. It has been dollar strength that has been the most significant obstacle for gold pricing. Dollar strength is a direct result of higher interest rates, a favorable U.S. equities markets, and a growing U.S. economy. A robust economy in the United States has created an extremely strong risk-on market sentiment. U.S. equities continue to trade to new record highs, and the bull market continues to have steam. As such, these factors continue to weigh heavily on gold pricing. Gold prices broke and closed below a key psychological support level at $1,200 per ounce in trading this week. This is the first occurrence of gold trading under $1,200 since the week of August 13. Prior to that, gold had not traded at these levels since January 2017. The fundamental factors which have been driving gold prices lower are still in play. Gold hit its highest price point with this year’s high in April, when it traded just shy of $1,370 per ounce. Since that point, gold has had a consistent and methodical price decline. As long as these fundamental factors continue, gold pricing will continue to either trade to lower pricing or overcome extremely strong headwinds to eke out marginal gains. Our technical studies indicate that there is support for gold pricing at $1,178 and at $1,164, the low gold traded to during the first week of August. These studies also indicate that the former level of support at $1,200 has now become the first level of resistance, with major resistance at $1,218. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 608 The Gold Forecast
Powell Puts Pressure on the Dollar - 08/24/2018
In his first speech as Fed Chairman at the economic conference in Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell’s speech resulted in the U.S. dollar trading lower and a strong upside move in gold pricing. In his speech, Powell said that the central bank's gradual path of interest rate hikes remains “’appropriate’ as there does not seem to be “an elevated risk of overheating.” Acutely aware that the Federal Reserve is playing an extremely important balancing act between moving towards a monetary policy of normalization, while not putting a damper on economic growth in the United States, Chairman Powell continues to thread the economic needle. In his speech, Powell said, “My colleagues and I believe that this gradual process of normalization remains appropriate.” Most importantly he maintains a high level of confidence in continued and robust economic growth. “With solid household and business confidence, healthy levels of job creation, rising incomes, and fiscal stimulus arriving, there is good reason to expect this strong performance will continue.” His statements strongly confirm a continuation of quantitative normalization through a series of gradual quarter-point rate hikes, along with the reduction of the central bank's massive assets, which swelled to $4.5 trillion at its peak. Currently, it is believed that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (¼%) two more times this year. In addition, the CME’s FedWatch tool predicts that there is a 96% probability of a rate hike in November and a 60% probability that there will be a final rate hike in 2018 occurring in December. The net result of his speech today were strong gains in the U.S. equity markets, intense selling pressure in the U.S. dollar, and a substantial upside move in gold. As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, the dollar index is trading down 0.54 % and is currently fixed at 95.07. Gold futures have gained $18.20 (+1.52%), and basis the most active December Comex contract is presently settled at $1,212.20. Today’s gains in gold are the result of both dollar weakness and traders bidding the precious yellow metal higher. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), spot gold is currently trading at $1,205 per ounce, up $20.40 on the day. Approximately one-quarter of today’s gains can be attributed to a weaker U.S. dollar (+5.40), while traders buying gold accounts for the remaining increases (+$14.95). All things being equal, with gold prices moving back above 1,200 in both the physical and futures markets, there is a high probability that we will see follow-through buying next week, as well as continued pressure on the U.S. dollar. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 841 The Gold Forecast
Is There a Straw That Broke the Camel’s Back? - 06/15/2018
Gold is trading under significant pressure today with August futures currently down $25.90 and fixed at $1,282.30. This sharp decline coincides with a major selloff of many commodities. Sharp declines in oil, grains, and other commodities defined trading activity in the futures markets today. The sharply lower precious metals pricing contrasts with recent activity in which both gold and silver were moving in tandem with an extremely strong U.S. dollar. The major event which occurred today was that President Donald Trump announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. Chinese imports that contain “industrial significant technologies” will be charged a 25% tariff. It has been widely regarded that the initiation of tariffs would raise the level of concern in terms of the geopolitical climate, which in turn would be bullish for the safe-haven asset gold. However, this is not what traders witnessed as the outcome today. If today’s $25 drop in gold prices was not in reaction to the announcement by President Trump, then what was the cause to today’s selloff in gold? One plausible explanation to today’s gold selloff is that it was a result of a combination of factors. We have just ended a week that began with four major events starting with the G7 meeting last week which resulted in discord between the United States and other member nations. This was followed by the summit between the United States and North Korea, the conclusion of this month’s FOMC meeting, and an announcement by the European Central Bank that they will soon end their quantitative easing monetary policy. The announcement by the European Central Bank caused a surge in U.S. dollar value specifically against the euro, while the other of events of this week resulted in a tepid reaction in terms of gold pricing. The fact of the matter is that this week has been ripe with exceedingly essential events that will affect the fabric of the global economy for years to come. However, it was the announcement by the European Central Bank that could have been the final straw that broke the camel’s back. Now for the first time since 2008, both the United States and the Eurozone are in the process of moving to a monetary policy of quantitative normalization. This significant policy shift could, in fact, be the most influential factor or the straw that caused the selloff in gold today. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 1041 The Gold Forecast
Top Dollar or Dollar Top - 05/11/2018
U.S. dollar strength has been prevalent throughout this year. Its effect has resulted in strong headwinds for the precious metals complex. Dollar strength has been the most significant force involved with limiting any real upside movement. On February 16, the dollar index traded to the lowest price point this year when it reached 88.15. From February up until this week, the dollar has gained almost 5%. For the last three consecutive weeks, the dollar has closed dramatically above its opening price on Monday, up until this week. See chart @ https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/weekly_doji.png On a weekly candlestick chart, this week’s candle is called a “doji.” A doji is a candlestick in which the open and closing price are identical or a few ticks apart. This candlestick is significant in that it clearly reflects indecision in the market. It indicates a point in time in which neither the Bulls or the Bears are able to dominate market action. Although the doji candle represents indecision, it does not indicate a key reversal unless found within a more complex pattern. Such is the case when viewing this week’s activity through the eyes of a daily candlestick chart. The pattern created this week is called a “Bearish Harami Cross.” See chart @ https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/harami_cross_daily.png The “Bearish Harami Cross” is composed of two candlesticks that occur after a defined uptrend. The first candlestick is created when there is a broad range between the lower open and higher closing price. The following candle is a doji candle that is completely engulfed by the body of the prior candle. This pattern requires a confirming candle in the subsequent cycle. This final candle must close below its opening price and trade to a lower low and lower high than the previous candle. On Tuesday of this week, the dollar index closed substantially higher, creating a large green candle. This was followed by Wednesday’s activity in which trading activity formed a higher high and a higher low, with an equal open and closing price creating a doji candle. This was followed by a large down day yesterday and lower pricing today. The candlestick pattern identified on our daily charts clearly indicates a high probability that the current rally in the dollar index might have run its course, and that pricing will move lower in the weeks ahead. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 3446 The Gold Forecast
Record Close in The Dow Pressures Haven Asset Class - 09/21/2018
Gaining 82 points on the day resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a new record high of 26,743.50. This is the second consecutive day in which the Dow traded to a new all-time high. This strong risk-on market sentiment coupled with dollar strength put tremendous downside pressure on gold pricing today. Gold futures basis the most active (December 2018) Comex contract closed down $7.90 and is currently fixed at $1,203.40 per ounce. Spot gold also traded under pressure resulting in an $8.10 decline and taking current pricing once again below 1,200. Spot gold is currently fixed at $1,198.80. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), today’s decline is almost an equal mix of selling pressure and dollar strength. A strengthening U.S. dollar accounts for $3.75 with the remaining $4.35 attributable to selling pressure. With the exception of silver, all of the precious metals traded under selling pressure today resulting in lower pricing. However, the industrial component of silver put any selling pressure at bay, with silver futures closing up 1 ½ cents and is currently fixed at $14.32. Waiting on the Fed Next week the Federal Reserve will hold this month’s FOMC meeting (Federal Open Market Committee) beginning on Tuesday and concluding on Wednesday. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will announce and initiate an interest rate hike at the conclusion of next week’s meeting. One primary question in the minds of investors and traders is in regards as to whether or not there will be a further interest rate hikes this year either in November or December. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 93.8% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (1/4%) and a 6.2% probability that the Fed will increase rates by 50 basis points (1/2%). This tool also predicts a 91.4% probability that there will be another rate hike in November of 25 basis points, with an 8.5% probability of a 50-basis point rate hike. Currently, the Fed funds rate (the rate that depository institutions charge to lend reserve money to other banks) is at 175-200 basis points (1 ¾% to 2%). Although the highest probability results in this rate growing to 200-225 basis points, there is a remote possibility that this rate could go as high as 250 basis points by the end of the year. We can expect the investment community at large to have a wait-and-see investment demeanor at least until Wednesday when the FOMC meeting concludes, and the Federal Reserve releases its monetary policy statement. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 511 The Gold Forecast
Gold Remains Solidly Above $1,200 Following Today’s Job Report - 10/05/2018
Interesting activity is afoot in the financial markets as a reaction to the release of the Labor Department’s jobs report numbers for September. According to the Labor Department, there were 134,000 jobs added in September. This was well below economic estimates which were looking for 185,000 jobs to be added last month. The Labor Department also upwardly revised jobs created in July and August. These upward revisions coupled with the fact that the unemployment rate is at a 40-year low were supportive of precious metals pricing, with the exception of platinum, and put continued selling pressure in U.S. equities. Although the jobs report’s numbers came in below expectations, many economists cite hurricane Florence as a primary force resulting in September’s lower numbers. As reported by MarketWatch, Thomas Simons, senior money market economist of Jeffries LLC, said, “September payrolls came in substantially weaker than expected, but it was certainly due to the effects of Hurricane Florence. We have seen this time and time again after big hurricanes (last September being a very good example after Hurricane Harvey, when payrolls fell 33K in the initial print). So, ignore the weakness in payrolls.” Most impressive was the fact that the last time the unemployment rate was at 3.7% was in December 1969, almost 50 years ago. Although these numbers are supportive of the proposed interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, there was no adverse effect in precious metals pricing. In fact, the only precious metal not to score moderate gains today was platinum. As of 4:45 PM Eastern standard time, gold futures are currently up $5.40 and fixed at $1,207 per ounce. Silver gained nine cents on the day, with the most active Comex contract presently fixed at $14.68, and palladium up an impressive 1.67% ($17.5) and fixed at $1,063 per ounce. In fact, the only precious metal that did not exhibit gains on the day was platinum. Platinum futures are currently trading off by $0.10 and fixed at $824.40. Palladium Moves Closer to Parity with Gold Because of the increased demand for palladium, as well as the limited geographic regions in the world which contain the precious metal, palladium has been a runaway freight train, gaining almost 30% in just a month and a half. Recent activity in gold and palladium have moved their prices closer, with a difference of only 144 dollars. A major precious metal refining company, Johnson Matthey, reported that palladium demand exceeded supply by 801,000 ounces in 2017. They are also predicting a shortfall this year of 239,000 ounces. These numbers highly support a continued price increase in palladium. If palladium prices reach parity with gold, it would be the first instance of this occurring in 16 years. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 654 The Gold Forecast
U.S Equity Meltdown - Dow Loses Over 800 point - 10/10/2018
Today, U.S stocks experienced their worst performance since February. Compared to the most significant single-day drop, the Dow’s performance today was still no walk in the park. In February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,175 points for a net decline of 4.6% on the day. Today the Dow scored its second worst day of the year by closing down 831 points, a net decline of 3.6%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite had the highest percentage decline, losing 4.08% in trading today as it closed down 314 points at 7,423.15. According to CNBC, this is the worst performance of tech stocks since 2011. Concerns about the trade dispute between the United States and China were cited as the underlying factor motivating investors to stage a selling frenzy. In a statement written by the Chinese Commerce Minister, Zhong Shan, and sent to Bloomberg news on Sunday, October 7, he alluded to the fact that this trade dispute has now become an out and out trade war. “On mutual benefit of trade between the U.S. and China: We have noticed that some in the U.S. believe their country has been taken advantage of by China on trade, which has become the pretext behind the trade war started by the U.S. administration.” With tariffs being implemented on both sides, the former trade dispute between the two superpowers has now moved to the next level. As such, today investors liquidated U.S. equity positions as they moved capital into bonds and safe-haven assets such as gold. Gold traded modestly higher today. As of 4:45 PM Eastern standard time, the most active December Comex contract is up $6.50 at $1,198 per ounce. Spot gold is currently up $5.10 and fixed at $1,194.20. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), today’s five dollar gain is almost equal parts of dollar weakness and traders bidding up the precious yellow metal. In fact, gold is the only precious metal to show any gains on the day with silver, platinum, and palladium all trading lower on the day. The most significant decline of the group was in silver which lost 0.56% of value and is currently fixed at $14.28. The real question becomes as to whether or not today’s selloff in U.S. equities and firmer prices in gold are an indication that traders have reached an inflection point in the way they view the current trade dispute and its potential repercussions. If so, we could see a further decline in US equities, and the beginning of a rally in gold. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 520 The Gold Forecast
Mum is Not the Word, at Least For This President - 06/01/2018
There have been many adjectives used to describe the current president of the United States, both by his supporters as well as his critics. However, words like “tight-lipped, wordless, and quiet,” are rarely if ever used to describe Trump. Case in point, an early morning tweet at 7:21 AM EST, one hour and nine minutes before the release of the Labor Department’s monthly employment numbers. See Tweet @ https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/trump_tweet.png Simply put, President Trump said, "Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.” Although the tweet did not contain any actual numbers contained in one of the most closely watched government reports, his comments certainly included an indication of the outcome. As reported by Bloomberg, “To many traders, it was clear that Trump was signaling the numbers would be good. There was a noticeable reaction in some markets, with the dollar climbing in the wake of the tweet as benchmark Treasury yields extended their advance to new highs for the day.” See dollar chart @ https://thegoldforecast.com/sites/default/files/trump_tweet_dolar.png Based on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, an hour before the jobs report was released the U.S. dollar had a huge move. This spike occurred after the president’s tweet, and before the actual jobs numbers were revealed. This is certainly an unusual and unconventional move prior to the release of the report. Apparently, the president didn’t get the memo or did not read the Federal rule that says that executive branch employees with early access to data must make sure there is no release of the information ahead of the designated time. This tweet certainly impacted gold pricing. It caused an immediate and strong drop resulting in gold trading to today’s low: $1,293.10. Although prices recovered briefly trading back above $1,300, it closed off $6.70 today at $1,298 (August Comex contract). We want to invite all of our You tube Subscribers to sign up for a FREE two week trial of the daily report. Simply go to https://thegoldforecast.com/pricing to take advantage of our FREE offer Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 4189 The Gold Forecast
Strong U.S Jobs Report Strengthens U.S Dollar - 09/07/2018
Undeniably the most important economic data to be released this month is the U.S. Labor Department’s jobs report which came out today. Economic estimates for new non-farm jobs for the month of August came in at 190,000. The actual data released today came in above expectations and forecasts revealing that 201,000 new nonfarm jobs were added last month. These solid numbers are the last and most important data set that Federal Reserve will look at during the next FOMC meeting scheduled to begin on September 26. Yesterday the CME’s FedWatch tool predicted that there was a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce and implement another rate hike of a quarter percent at the end of this month’s meeting. Today following the release of the jobs report the probability of a rate hike according to the FedWatch tool is now at 99.8%. Higher interest rates are incredibly supportive of the U.S. dollar. The dollar index is currently fixed at 95.335, after today’s net gain of 0.347 points (+0.37%). Dollar strength was 100% responsible for today’s decline in gold prices. As of 4:00 PM Eastern standard time, spot gold was fixed at $1,195.90, after subtracting the $3.60 decline posted today. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), traders bid up the precious yellow metal by $0.95 today. However, dollar strength caused gold prices to decrease by $4.55. Gold futures are down $2.50 on the day, with the most active December Comex contract currently fixed at $1,201.70. Gold closed lower on the day, as well as closing lower on the week. Marking the second consecutive week in which gold is traded to lower pricing. In an interview with MarketWatch, Rob Haworth said, “We remain cautious on gold over the rest of the year, with the Fed on pace to meet its planned rate increases supporting a stronger U.S. dollar. Growth outside the U.S. is unlikely to deteriorate into recessions this year, limiting safe haven demand for gold.” The New Normal – Quantitative Normalization With an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month basically etched in stone, the question becomes whether this rate hike will be the final hike of this year or if the Federal Reserve intends to raise rates in both September and December. The Federal Reserve has pledged to move their monetary policy from accommodative to a period of normalization. As such, whether the Fed raises rates one or two times this year is just a matter of timing because it is not if interest rates are going higher, but rather when. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 529 The Gold Forecast
You Say Good Buy, I Say Heck No - 08/10/2018
I say, "High," you say, "Low." You say, "Why?" And I say, "I don't know." I don't know why you say, "Good buy," I say, "Heck no." Satirized from Hello Goodbye by: John Lennon / Paul McCartney You might say that what we are witnessing today in terms of gold pricing is like a salmon swimming upstream against the current. While there is some truth to that statement, it is a misnomer. Yes, gold prices have moved substantially higher. However, they are trading lower on the day as a direct result of extreme dollar strength. What we are witnessing is the purest example of a flight to quality, a move to safe-haven assets. Both the U.S. dollar and gold are safe-haven assets, and what we are truly witnessing is not a salmon swimming upstream, but rather two safe-haven assets gaining value with the U.S. dollar clearly reaping the majority of gains. Today’s massive uptick in the U.S. dollar and respectable move in gold pricing is a result of the Turkish crisis. The economic crisis in Turkey has had a profound effect across multiple financial markets due to fears that the economic crisis in the country could spread to other economies. U.S. equities are trading under pressure today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average currently down almost 200 points, with equal losses in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite. In fact, all three indexes are currently off by about 7/10 of a percent. Although analysts correctly believe that if this crisis expands it would have a profound impact on gold pricing, the real question becomes will gains in gold be able to compensate for dollar strength in any real sense? Obviously, gold has made a sizable move when paired against other foreign currencies such as the euro-dollar and British pound. However, for those that pair gold against dollars, it is an uphill battle at best, and at least for today, the U.S. dollar has come out on top. The U.S. dollar index has gained almost 9/10 of a percent in trading today and is currently fixed at 96.18. At the same time, gold prices are trading fractionally lower, with gold futures presently trading off by $0.90 on the day and fixed at $1,219. Physical gold is also trading lower on the day and is currently fixed at $1,211. This fractional decline is deceiving in that traders are solidly bidding up the precious yellow metal resulting in an increase of $7.50 in value. However, once you subtract $8.60, which is the change in gold pricing due to a strong U.S. dollar, the net change on physical gold is a decline of $1.10 today. As long as the U.S. dollar continues to gain value, any gains in gold will be tempered by dollar strength, and as such could in fact trade sideways, fractionally higher, or even lower during this crisis. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 2309 The Gold Forecast
Gold Closes Lower for the Fourth Consecutive Week - 08/03/2018
Although gold futures finished fractionally higher on the day, it has closed lower on the week. This now marks the fourth consecutive week in which gold futures have closed lower and below the open on Monday. When we look at a weekly candlestick chart, we can see that even though gold closed, in essence, unchanged, it is a red colored candle indicating the close is below the open for the week. Over the last eight weeks, gold has only closed higher on only one occasion. More significant is the fact that over the previous two months gold has lost almost $100 in value. The last two months we have seen the U.S. dollar remain strong, and the U.S. equities markets continuing to hold firm and recover from the three-week selloff which began during the week of June 11. U.S. equities have gained value for the last five consecutive weeks when viewed through the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This strong risk-on environment created from rising equities prices coupled with dollar strength and rising interest rates have made safe-haven assets maintain a defensive posture. Dollar Index Closes Above 95 Although the dollar gained only fractionally today, on a weekly basis the index closed above 95 for the first time since July 2017 (on a daily chart the dollar closed at 95.11 on June 28). As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, the dollar index is up 0.05% and trading at 95.04. The only event holding the dollar back this week was today’s jobs report which showed that in July the U.S. gained 157,000 jobs. This was below the analyst's estimates (MarketWatch forecast) which predicted that 195,000 jobs would be added in July. The steady and growing U.S. economy continues to weigh on gold prices. As long as economic forecasts continue to reveal stability and growth, the U.S. dollar should remain firm and precious metals pricing will continue to trade under pressure. Spot gold fared much better than gold futures today resulting in a gain of $5.90. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1,213.10. On closer inspection, today’s gains were the direct result of traders bidding up the precious yellow metal accounting for a gain of $6.50, but fractional gains in the dollar index took away $0.60 of value. On a technical basis, gold futures were able to hold above a critical support level which resides at $1,218. This level is a 0.618% retracement created from the lows ($1,124) gold traded to at the end of 2016 to the highs achieved at $1,369 this year. Below this level is a psychological support level of $1,200 per ounce, followed by a support level at $1,178 which is the 0.78% retracement level. Currently, we have major resistance at $1,240 per ounce. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 3317 The Gold Forecast
Gold Trades to the Lowest Price of the Year - 06/22/2018
Although gold closed modestly higher on the day, the precious yellow metal scored its second consecutive week of lower pricing. Gold futures opened on Monday at $1,281 per ounce and traded to a high of $1,286. However, it was the weekly low of $1,263 that fostered the most profound concern. When considering that gold opened just above $1,300 per ounce at the beginning of the year, the last two weeks have resulted in gold trading to the lowest price of 2018. The two critical factors which have placed the most considerable amount of selling pressure have been a strong U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy of quantitative normalization. The highest price gold has traded to this year occurred during the week of April 9, when gold futures traded as high as $1,370 per ounce. At that time, the dollar index was trading at 89 after forming a base and support from the lows achieved at the end of January. This week the dollar index hit its highest value of the year when it traded to highs above 95. This represents a 6% gain this year. While dollar strength explains the clear majority of gold’s lower pricing this year, gold has lost approximately 7.2% of value from the highs achieved in April. The additional 1.2% is obviously due to selling pressure. This month’s FOMC meeting revealed a more hawkish Fed that created additional selling pressure. Although it was widely anticipated that the Fed would initiate its second-rate hike this year, they also announced a possible addition of two more rate hikes in 2018. A Death Cross Forming on Daily Gold Charts On a technical basis, one of the more foreboding indicators is an extremely high probability that the short-term 50-day moving average will cross below the longer-term 200-day moving average, which is commonly referred to as a death cross. Most technical analysts use the 200-day moving average as a gauge of a long-term trend, and the 50-day moving average as a gauge of the short-term trend. Any stock or commodity which is trending higher will result in the shorter-term moving average rising above the longer-term moving average. Therefore, a death cross can signal when a short-term decline has moved into a longer-term decline or downtrend. Looming Trade War The current dispute between the United States and China has been moving towards an all-out trade war. It will be the net effect on the U.S. dollar, if and when tariffs begin to be enforced, that will indicate the future direction of gold. As of now, the current dispute and the recent announcement by the European Central Bank has strengthened the dollar. As reported in MarketWatch, "Gold traders, however, have mostly dismissed those anxiety-provoking events that normally would be supportive of gold’s price to focus on a stronger buck and the prospect of central bank policy tightening taking hold in key developed markets.” If tariffs are enforced in July as proposed, it could have a profound impact on dollar strength that would take the dollar index lower, which would move gold off of these recent lows. However the "Death Cross" if completed would indicate that the short term sell-off has become a Long Term trend. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 4515 The Gold Forecast
Great News, Gold is Down - 04/20/2018
My subscribers and readers of my daily column know that I have an intrinsic bias towards gold. This bias is in relationship to the finite quantity of gold when compared to fiat currencies. Gold and silver were utilized as some of the earliest forms of currencies. The earliest types of government currencies were minted coins made of gold and silver. More importantly, the value of those coins was based solely on the value of the metal within. That meant that the country with the most gold had the most wealth. By the mid-1800s most countries sought to standardize trade transactions. To that end, they adopted various currency standards based on gold. Paper currency or notes were government IOUs redeemable for an equivalent amount of gold. In 1913 Congress created the Federal Reserve in order to stabilize currency and gold values. However, that all changed after World War I when European countries temporarily suspended the gold standard in order to print whatever currency was needed to pay for their involvement. Most countries went back to some sort of a gold standard, which they modified so that they could print currency partially backed by gold. This, of course, was the beginning of the end of the gold standard. The net result of this action was the creation of fiat currencies. It is the new relationship between government-issued fiat currencies and gold that formed my intrinsic bias for gold. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset Gold also reacts as a safe-haven asset group in times of increased geopolitical conflicts. This was the underlying cause that fueled the most recent rally in gold. The current trade dispute between the United States and China, an impending military strike by the United States in Syria, and the nuclear ambitions of North Korea collectively heightened geopolitical concerns taking gold pricing higher. Recent declines in gold prices this week have been largely attributable to these geopolitical events either subsiding or concluding. The military response by the United States and allies occurred as a one and done event that appears to have concluded. Trade war fears in regard to the current dispute between the United States and China have at least for now been moved to the back burner. As remarkable as it seems, the United States and North Korea will sit down in attempts to resolve North Korea’s nuclear armament. In other words, it is excellent news that gold is down. While I continue to have an intrinsic bias favoring gold over fiat currencies, it is the safe-haven aspect of the precious yellow metal that no one wishes to exploit. Lower gold prices reflecting a more peaceful geopolitical environment present an easy pill to swallow. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer We want to invite all of our You tube Subscribers to sign up for a FREE two week trial of the daily report. Simply go to https://thegoldforecast.com/pricing to take advantage of our FREE offer
Views: 1004 The Gold Forecast
Gold Futures Close at the Lowest Price Since July 2017 - 07/27/2018
Gold futures closed lower on the week, losing value for the third consecutive week. More foreboding is the fact that not only has gold closed at the lowest value this year, but the last time gold futures closed near this level was almost a year ago. During the week of August 26, 2017, gold futures closed at $1,210 and then opened at $1,211 the first week of July 2017. Gold would gain value up until September 2017, when it reached its highest price value of the year, closing on a weekly chart at $1,351 after reaching a high that week of $1,362. Gold pricing would decline during the last quarter of 2017, until the week of December 11 which marked the beginning of a rally which would take gold pricing almost $130 higher. Gold pricing would flirt near the yearly highs from January to April of this year, trading to a low just above $1,300, and challenging the highs on three occasions above $1,360 per ounce. During the week of April 9, gold prices traded to the highest point before dollar strength began to pressure gold pricing. This marked the beginning of a correction that continues to this day. Last week gold closed at a new weekly low for the year. On Thursday of last week, gold traded to a low of $1,211. If not for statements and tweets President Trump made during that day gold prices could have drifted much lower. Last Thursday the president spoke about his dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the leadership of Jerome Powell in an interview with CNBC. This was followed by a tweet the president sent a week ago Friday in which he tweeted “the United States should not be penalized because we are doing well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD trade deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates ­-- Really?” His statements made last Thursday during the CNBC interview and subsequent tweets moved the dollar index almost a full percentage point lower, thereby causing gold to move from its low of $1,211 back to $1,231 by the close of trading on Friday of last week. The dollar recovered and gained value this week. However, the dollar had fractional losses today even in light of the U.S. economy having its strongest quarter in nearly four years. The U.S. government reported a GDP that grew at a 4.1% annualized pace in the second quarter, dwarfing the revised 2.2% GDP growth during the first quarter of this year. The strong GDP reported could certainly strengthen the dollar next week thereby putting continued pressure on gold prices. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 4666 The Gold Forecast
Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trump, and the Fed - 07/20/2018
Although gold is trading lower on the week, Friday’s trading activity resulted in moderately higher pricing with gold closing up seven dollars. August Comex futures are currently fixed at $1,231 after adding today’s net gain of 0.57%. However, the real story today is not so much gold as it is the U.S. dollar. The dollar index is currently down by almost 0.80%, which is a 75-point drop, taking the dollar index to 94.19. The gains in gold futures today were all due to dollar weakness. We can certainly see that in the spot market. As of 4:15 PM Eastern standard time physical gold closed up $8.40 on the day. According to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX), it was dollar weakness which added $9.40 value today, but after subtracting one dollar which is directly attributable to selling pressure, you get the final closing price of $1,230.70 per ounce and a net gain of $8.40. It was comments made by President Trump yesterday on recent actions of the Federal Reserve and their current monetary policy that caused the dollar to trade dramatically lower today. In an interview with CNBC, the president said that he is not “thrilled” that the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates. "Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again. I don't really - I am not happy about it. But at the same time, I'm letting them do what they feel is best. But I don't like all of this work that goes into doing what we're doing." The question becomes twofold, first, whether the president will continue to put pressure on the Federal Reserve, and what, if any, effect that would have on the independent policies of the Fed. Secondly, what impact the president could have on taking the U.S. dollar lower. A lower dollar would soften the effect of tariffs Trump plans on initiating by making goods less expensive with other countries. While it seems highly unlikely that pressure from President Trump will influence the Federal Reserve to deviate from its current timetable of initiating interest rate hikes, there is a high likelihood that he will continue to voice his opinion through tweets. Most importantly will be his influence on the U.S. dollar, and whether or not he shapes U.S. policies which could move the dollar lower. Since recent weakness in gold prices have been a direct result of dollar strength, a reversal in the dollar would have the opposite effect taking gold prices dramatically higher. For those who would like more information, simply use this link. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary Wagner
Views: 807 The Gold Forecast
A Shooting Star Forecasts Dollar Weakness - 04/27/2018
Although the dollar traded fractionally lower on the day, it is the highs achieved today along with the inability to sustain those new price highs that created a single day candlestick known as a shooting star. This candlestick is a member of the umbrella group of patterns, which contain the hammer, hangman, inverted hammer, and shooting star. The hammer and hangman, as well as the shooting star and inverted hammer, are identical in composition. They are differentiated by whether or not they occur after a defined uptrend or defined downtrend. A shooting star is interpreted as a type of reversal pattern presaging a falling price. A shooting star and hangman occur after the market has been in a defined uptrend. If these candle types are identified after a correction, they are called an inverted hammer and a hammer. There are two primary factors needed to create this candlestick type. First, this candlestick must contain a tiny real body (differential between the open and closing price). Secondly, there needs to be a considerable distance between the daily high and the open and closing range, with the tail at least three times the length of the real body. According to Investopedia, “Shooting stars indicate potential price tops and reversals. The shooting star candle is most effective when it forms after a series of at least three or more consecutive rising candles with higher highs. As the price rises, buyers get impatient waiting for a pullback, and leapfrog over one another to purchase shares. Eventually, the buying frenzy hits a peak as the last of the immediate buyers jump into the stock (or any financial instrument) in a greed-driven panic to mark the highest high of the preceding series of candles.” It is precisely this Japanese candlestick type that resulted from today’s trading activity. It meets the criteria in that it occurred after a defined and sustained uptrend. The fact that this candle was found at the 50% retracement is also significant. As such we could very well see the dollar’s value begin to decline over the next couple of weeks. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 6068 The Gold Forecast
Could Gold Go Lower from Here? - 08/14/2018
After yesterday’s dynamic price drop, the real question is will gold go lower or will it rally from here? The possible answers are entirely different when you look at the technical data and when you then look at the fundamental events behind the selloff in gold. On a technical basis, gold is over-sold. This week gold broke below the 0.618% retracement as it traded through and below $1,218 per ounce. This retracement began after the third attempt to take out the former highs in gold at $1,370. The last major rally occurred at the end of 2016 when gold gained roughly $246 as it traded from $1,124... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/could-gold-go-lower-here
Views: 110 The Gold Forecast
It’s Hammer Time - 08/13/2018
Gold, as well as silver, began to sell off slightly at the start of trading yesterday on Monday morning in Australia. However, by the time trading had opened in Hong Kong and moved into London, the selling became more pronounced as the price declined at a steeper pace. By 3:00 PM Eastern standard time, gold futures had sold off to the lowest price this year as gold broke and traded below $1,200 per ounce. At the time of writing this article, gold futures basis most active December is currently trading off by $18.30 and priced at $1,200.70. Spot gold is also trading under dramatic pressure, down $... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/it%E2%80%99s-hammer-time
Views: 51 The Gold Forecast
It Is Not About Gold Being Oversold - 06/28/2018
or not gold is currently oversold; rather it is all about whether or not the U.S. dollar is overbought. The current selloff in gold, which began immediately following prices reaching the 2018 apex at $1,370 ounce, has been driven first and foremost by dollar strength. It is the dollar leading gold prices and not the other way around. There are market analysts who are looking for a corrective bounce in gold based upon the fact that prices are oversold. However, the real issue is whether or not the dollar will continue to gain value and move to higher ground. As long as the dollar remains in a dynamic... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/it-not-about-gold-being-oversold
Views: 144 The Gold Forecast
He Loves a Weak Dollar, He Loves a Weak Dollar Not - 01/26/2018
Traders and investors that follow gold and the U.S. dollar were participants in a virtual roller coaster ride this week as conflicting versions of the current administration’s policy on the U.S. dollar surfaced. Statements made by Stephen Mnuchin, the Treasury Secretary, on Wednesday sent gold prices sharply higher, and the U.S. dollar index sharply lower. The dollar index lost roughly 1% in value, and gold gained over $22 per ounce on that day alone. This happened immediately following a comment made by the Treasury Secretary where he noted, “a weak dollar is good for trade.” This was followed by comments made by President Trump in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. He stated that he wanted to see a stronger U.S. dollar. The president was quoted as saying, “The dollar is going to get stronger and stronger and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar.” He also mentioned that the Treasury Secretary’s comment was taken out of context. The comments made by the president during the interview conflicted with earlier statements, and more importantly were the opposite of the perceived monetary policy of this current administration. In April of last year, the president said that the currency (dollar) was “getting too strong” in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. That caused the dollar index to drop by a half percent in under 15 minutes. The president’s comments in his interview yesterday sent gold prices plunging and the U.S. dollar index higher. These polar opposite statements have confused investors and analysts as to the actual desired policy of this current administration. In an interview in MarketWatch, Michael Kosares of USAGOLD, said, “The Trump administration offered “two different versions of the [dollar] policy simultaneously and the market will be in a guessing game as to which one is the actual policy. But “given the dollar’s performance over the past year or so, it looks like a weaker dollar is the market reality, at least for now.” Even with the president’s comments on Thursday about a strong dollar, the upside bounce of the dollar index was short-lived and lasted only a day. In today’s trading, the dollar index lost -0.30 %, and spot gold gained about two dollars on the day. More important, on a weekly basis gold gained value, and the U.S. dollar index continued its steep decline. It seems that it is likely that both the U.S. dollar and gold will continue on their current trajectory next week, with gold gaining value, and the U.S. dollar continuing to trade lower. We want to invite all of our You tube Subscribers to sign up for a FREE two week trial of the daily report. Simply go to https://thegoldforecast.com/pricing to take advantage of our FREE offer Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 861 The Gold Forecast
Don’t Rock the Boat - 08/25/2017
“So I'd like to know where, you got the notion, said I'd like to know where, you got the notion to rock the boat, don't rock the boat baby, rock the boat, don't tip the boat over.” As if Janet Yellen took a cue from the 1974 song by the Hues Corporation, in her speech today at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, she decided not to rock the boat. Although she spoke out in defense of the regulations that were initiated during the Obama presidency, she did not address any future plans or timetables in regard to the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike. The only boat she really rocked was her own. She sent a loud and clear message to this current administration as she defended the Dodd Frank legislation implemented after the 2008 crisis. In her speech, she acknowledged that it was the reforms that shored up the U.S financial system by making it mandatory that banks increase the capital on hand, as well as the alleviation of high-risk assets on their balance sheets. Initial commentary about Janet Yellen’s speech today has alluded to the fact that her comments were directed at the current administration, and that likely this would be the last keynote address from the current chairwoman, as her position with the Federal Reserve will come to a conclusion in February. According to an article penned by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, in today’s Business Insider, “In her keynote address at the high-profile conference in the Grand Teton mountains of Wyoming, Yellen was not holding back — in a way that potentially suggests she is not holding her breath for a reappointment from Donald Trump. Yellen's term as Fed chair expires in February, and Trump is widely expected to nominate Gary Cohn, ex-president of Goldman Sachs and head of the president's National Economic Council, to replace her.” Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note, "Fed Chair Janet Yellen's passionate defense of the post-crisis tightening of financial regulation isn't going to go down particularly well at the White House. Donald Trump has made rolling back regulation the centerpiece of his presidency." With the looming potential for a government shutdown, if the powers at hand are unable to come to an agreement about our budget and raise the debt ceiling, there is the potential for further economic upheaval in the United States. This, coupled with other upcoming events as well as the current political turmoil in Washington, has put defined pressure on the U.S. dollar, which has been extremely supportive of gold pricing. As of 3 o’clock EDT, gold futures are trading up 4 ½ dollars at $1296.50. The U.S. dollar continues its freefall losing over 8/10 of a percent in value vis-à-vis the U.S dollar index. Although Janet Yellen said very little today in regard to the future plans of the Federal Reserve, the current economic climate is certainly rocking the boat in regards to U.S. dollar strength. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 864 The Gold Forecast
Gold Soars, George Soros is big Gold Buyer Forex Market Forecast 3-2-2010
The Last Of Our FREE market updates. Go To WFGForex.com to get a FREE 1 Week trial to our Daily Forex GOLD Forecast. Teaching the fundamentals of Candlesticks and how they could be used to enhance your trading activity Japanese Candlesticks are a method of following market price action and identifying market reversal points and trends. Compared to traditional bar charts, many traders consider candlestick charts more visually appealing and easier to interpret. Each candlestick provides an easy-to-decipher picture of price action. Immediately a trader can see compare the relationship between the open and close as well as the high and low. The relationship between the open and close is considered vital information and forms the essence of candlesticks.
Views: 2046 The Gold Forecast
Jobs Report Results in a Resurgence of US Dollar Strength - 08/04/2017
Today’s jobs report released by the Labor Department indicated that U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in July, well above analysts’ estimates. Add to that a 16 year low in the unemployment rate (4.3%), and you have the necessary components to bid up the U.S. dollar, which has been under dramatic pressure throughout this year, resulting in a 15-month low. The real question is whether today’s data and dollar strength indicate a key reversal for the dollar or simply a dead cat bounce. The U.S. Dollar Index gained almost 7/10 of a percent today, settling at 93.35. This, of course, resulted in strong downside pressure on dollar based commodities, such as gold and silver. As of 10 o’clock EDT, spot gold is currently trading down $9.20 at $1258.70. According to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX), this move was almost entirely dollar based, with very little selling or buying accounting for the price change. Of that -$9.20, a strong U.S. dollar contributed $8.60, with selling representing only $0.60 to the current price of gold. This week’s move brought a conclusion to the former gold rally, which resulted in higher pricing for the last three consecutive weeks. I Think She Will Raise Rates, I Think She Will Not On Wednesday, I wrote about the shifting market sentiment regarding the current Fed monetary policy, which continues to oscillate considerably. In this report, I wrote: Like pulling the petals off a daisy, market participants and analysts have been oscillating back-and-forth, almost day by day, as to whether Janet Yellen, at the helm of the Federal Reserve, will initiate a last interest rate hike in 2017. On Wednesday, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the odds of another quarter-point U.S. rate increase this year was at 47%. Today’s Jobs report will certainly move that needle much higher. According to Jeffry Bartash, in an article he penned for MarketWatch, “A robust labor market also keeps the Federal Reserve on track to raise U.S. interest rates again before year end. The central bank is already putting the final touches on a plan to wind down a multi-trillion-dollar bond-buying spree put in place almost a decade ago to stoke the economy.” Market participants and analysts have the weekend to digest today’s report and gauge what effect this data will have on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. It will be interesting to see how the odds change vis-à-vis the CME’s FedWatch tool. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 832 The Gold Forecast
A very early clip from a seminar in the 1990's. WFGForex.com Teaching the fundamentals of Candlesticks and how they could be used to enhance your trading activity Japanese Candlesticks are a method of following market price action and identifying market reversal points and trends. Compared to traditional bar charts, many traders consider candlestick charts more visually appealing and easier to interpret. Each candlestick provides an easy-to-decipher picture of price action. Immediately a trader can see compare the relationship between the open and close as well as the high and low. The relationship between the open and close is considered vital information and forms the essence of candlesticks. Hollow candlesticks, where the close is greater than the open, indicate buying pressure. Filled candlesticks, where the close is less than the open, indicate selling pressure.
Views: 395 The Gold Forecast
Dollar Weakness Continues to Support Gold Pricing - 08/27/2018
Considering that U.S. equities have had a strong upside move today, with the NASDAQ Composite closing at a new record high price at 8,013.33, gold futures are holding up rather well and currently trading up $3.60 at $1216.90. This is a nominal price gain; however when taking into account the incredibly strong risk-on market sentiment on the surface, it is impressive. On closer inspection, we can see that it is not traders bidding up gold pricing today, but rather U.S. dollar weakness that is the net result of a positive move in gold. As of 4:00 PM Eastern standard time, spot gold is currently... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/dollar-weakness-continues-support-gold-pricing
Views: 54 The Gold Forecast
It’s Not Just About the Benjamins - 05/17/2018
It’s not just about the Benjamins, it’s also about higher bond yields today. Trading to its lowest price this year, gold continues to struggle while a strengthening U.S. dollar, coupled with higher yields, continues to create fierce headwinds. Up until Tuesday’s 28-dollar drop, the lowest price for gold this year was $1,302. On Tuesday, gold broke below $1,300 and the 200-day moving average. Even though the last five trading days have all contained a lower low, there are signs that the intense selling pressure has started to weaken. Diminished selling pressure is evident in the narrow range... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/it%E2%80%99s-not-just-about-benjamins
Views: 40 The Gold Forecast
It’s All About the Dollar - 08/21/2018
Gold futures have shown a respectable gain on the day and, as of 4:15 PM Eastern standard time, the most active December Comex contracts are trading up $6.70 and currently fixed at $1,201.30. Spot gold is currently fixed at $1,193.60, which is a net gain of $3.50 on the day. However, gains realized today are entirely tied to U.S. dollar weakness. In fact, when looking at the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), we can see that dollar weakness provided $6.10 of gains with selling pressure resulting in a decline of $2.60. Recent dollar weakness can be attributed to criticism from President Trump. This criticism... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/it%E2%80%99s-all-about-dollar-0
Views: 88 The Gold Forecast
The Gold Forecast  Higher Gold Prices Ahead ?
http://www.thegoldforecast.com Make no mistake: the precious metals markets fell under tremendous pressure in trading activity this week. Gold quickly plunged through any kind of psychological support at $1700 per ounce and slowly made its way towards $1600 per ounce. On an intraday basis gold gave back close to 61% of the gains achieved during the first rally of 2012 in which we witnessed gold prices move from 1522 almost $1800 per ounce. A 61% retracement would have taken gold to 1624 per ounce, very close to its intraday low of 1635. There seems to be a push pull scenario developing in the precious metals markets as investors use gold as a safe haven investment and a risk on-risk off investment. With the U.S. dollar continuing to gain strength, and the U.S. equities markets breaking through 13,000 on the Dow, investors have a multitude of areas to place their investment dollars besides gold. The upside with a strong equities markets is that there is no need to liquidate gold holdings to cover any type of margin calls for other investments. It also needs to be noted that there is a real potential for economic growth in the United States as recent reports have shown. All in all, today's video will look at the technical side of the precious metals markets, which indicate a potential bottom in the market based upon Elliott wave theory. According to our current count which we will review in detail in today's video, we have just concluded a corrective wave "2." This corrective wave is typically the steepest or most dramatic of the two corrective waves (2&4), typically taking a market to a 61% retracement. This is exactly what we witnessed this week. It is therefore still my belief that we will begin to see higher prices in the precious metals markets in the weeks and months to come GOLD AND SILVER: on a technical basis it appears as though the precious metals markets have finally concluded an intermediate corrective wave. This corrective wave, wave 2, was composed of a subset of waves (A,B,C), and this week we witnessed the sheer magnitude and power of the corrective "C" wave. If this count holds true we will now enter an impulse phase that will propel gold and silver to higher prices. Today's video will not only discuss upside targets in gold, but also review this week's trading activity and strategies that we implemented. This not only includes the buy signal generated yesterday, but a tightening of our stops on last week's trade to minimize our risk to a highly acceptable level..
Views: 1632 The Gold Forecast
Modest Gains in White Precious Metals and Modest Losses in Gold - 08/09/2018
A strong U.S. dollar has tempered any real upside move in the precious metals markets today. Although traders are currently bidding up the all the precious metals, only silver, platinum and palladium have closed with positive gains. This can very well be explained as the three precious white metals all have intrinsic industrial value, and as such are reacting favorably to recent economic data. Gold is lower as dollar gains today have dwarfed gains achieved in normal trading. The dollar is surging in trading today as it has gained over a half a percent of value, with the index currently up +0.58.5... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/modest-gains-white-precious-metals-and-modest-losses-gold
Views: 37 The Gold Forecast
Gold Holds Precariously Just Above $1,200 - 08/30/2018
As of 4:00 PM Eastern standard time, spot gold is trading just above $1,200 at $1,200.09. This occurred after trading to a low today of $1,196.45 before slightly recovering. Although dollar strength can be cited as an underlying force, it is selling pressure that is dominating the markets today. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), today’s decline of $6.10 is composed of mostly selling pressure accounting for $4.50 of today’s lower pricing with the remaining $1.60 attributable directly to dollar strength. Currently, the dollar is only up by approximately nine points (+0.09%) and fixed at 94.61.... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/gold-holds-precariously-just-above-1200
Views: 51 The Gold Forecast
Back to the Basics: Risk-On Sentiment and High Consumer Confidence - 08/28/2018
Gold futures are trading under pressure today with the most active December Comex contract currently down $8.80 (-0.72%) and fixed at $1,207 20. After gaining over $20 in value on Friday, gold tracked fractionally higher in trading yesterday. However, closing occurred below a key technical resistance level at $1,217 per ounce. Today gold opened right at resistance at $1,217.70 and traded to an intraday high of $1,220.70 before falling to dramatically lower pricing. Multiple factors can be seen applying selling pressure to the precious metals complex; thhttps://thegoldforecast.com/video/back-basics-risk-sentiment-and-high-consumer-confidenceese include a U.S. equities markets moving to... Read more
Views: 56 The Gold Forecast
Gold Continues to Trade Under Pressure - 08/16/2018
Gold continues to trade lower, effectively trading and closing at the lowest price point this year. In trading overseas, last night gold futures hit a low of $1,167.10 before recovering. As of 3:30 PM Eastern standard time, December Comex futures are currently trading off by $4.20 and fixed at $1,180.80. Although the dollar index is trading slightly lower on the day, there is an undeniable pressure created today from incredibly strong U.S. equities market. With about half an hour left in trading today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has scored gains of approximately 427 points and is currently... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/gold-continues-trade-under-pressure
Views: 51 The Gold Forecast
Gold Up On Fed Jitters and Brexit As Equities And Oil Falter - 06/10/2016
There’s always at least one in every crowd that cuts across the grain. Today, we have a number of equities traders across the globe who are concerned the Fed is going to surprise markets. Yawn… and if the Fed does surprise? U.S. rates go to 0.75, scarcely a game changer. Never mind, though, because it won’t be happening. If you think the Fed has weighty interest-rate questions on its mind, think about the Russians. They’ve just lowered their interest rate to 10.5% from 11.00%. Break out the cowbells and vodka, everyone. Equities around the world were down today, with U.S. stocks faring best. Europe was down the most of all regions on growth fears, near-zero German bund yields, and the big unresolved risk event – the Brexit vote, which come on June 23rd. A poll released after trading hours on the other side of the pond shows that Brits are foolishly going to vote for an exit from certain EU commitments. The DAX was off 2.50%, while in Paris the CAC was down 2.25%. The London FTSE was hurt today but less than either German or French bourses. Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, warned of an undershoot on inflation targets and seemed to be saying that more inflation is better than too little, a stance with which we agree. He also warned of long-term consequences to output and productivity, and the under-utilization of Europe vast pool of talent. No one in the western world do leaders want to make the mega infrastructure investments needed to catapult the leading technological countries to the next big phase. Now if there were a war, the money would be “found.” But for a peaceful advance? No way. West Teas Intermediate fell 3.00% and Brent North Sea fell around 2.80% as a stronger dollar and a slight rise in U.S. rig counts weighed. Saboteurs in Nigeria have seen to it that prices did not fall too far, blowing up another pipeline as officials of that country said explicitly they could not control the “Niger Valley Avengers.” Nevertheless, Brent and WTI remained on track for weekly gains, although much diminished. Gold prospered from the various cross currents present in the market as investors looked for a smart haven play heading into the weekend. Silver was up again, as well. Both metals rose even in the face of the stronger dollar. At 3:30 in New York, gold is up $6.00 per ounce. Silver has risen 5 cents per ounce. Elsewhere in haven land, the yield on the U.S. 10-year bond fell yet again. They yen waffled between the green and red zones all day but looks to finish up around 0.33%. The Swiss franc also showed indecision and is on track to finish even on the day. The British pound is of 1.30%, an indication of what is to come. Quietly for now, volatility has been creeping up as measured by the VIX in Chicago (CBOE). It has risen from about 13.50 to 17.20 just this week. This is so, even as the CME is showing a steady probability reading of under 2.00% for an interest rate hike come next Wednesday when the FOMC meets. Summer weekend-its is figuring into a lot of investors’ trading calculus. The crowds are filling up the Hampton's and the Cape Islands on the East Coast of the U.S. The Brits? They’re probably headed for the nearest pub. . Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary Wagner
Views: 751 The Gold Forecast
Traders Continue to Focus Upon Trade Dispute - 09/17/2018
As of 4:00 PM Eastern standard time, market participants continue to focus upon the current trade dispute between the United States and China as they await news from the administration in regard to whether the United States will impose additional tariffs. According to a report by Reuters, “U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he would announce his latest plan on China tariffs after the markets close, with expectations he would level them on about $200 billion of Chinese imports.” However this seems to be part of the mixed messages being received as earlier Larry Kudlow, economic advisor to... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/traders-continue-focus-upon-trade-dispute
Views: 45 The Gold Forecast
Last Week’s Price Action Suggested a Pivot Was Forming In Gold - 08/20/2018
On Friday of last week, we spoke about the fact that over the last two trading days (Thursday and, Friday) we had seen the first real signs of gold pricing finding support and reaching a potential bottom. One of the most revealing days was Thursday, when gold traded to the lowest price point this year before recovering. After trading to an intraday low of $1167 per ounce, gold futures (basis the most active December Comex contract) recovered with a vengeance and actually closed near its opening price that day. To the Eastern market technician that forms a single candle type simply called a “doji... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/last-week%E2%80%99s-price-action-suggested-pivot-was-forming-gold
Views: 61 The Gold Forecast
Gold Futures Break Below $1,200 - 09/04/2018
An equal combination of both selling pressure and dollar strength have once again taken gold prices lower, resulting in gold futures breaking below $1,200 per ounce. Most active December Comex futures are currently trading off $9.30 on the day and fixed at $1,197.40. As of 2:00 PM Eastern standard time, spot gold is currently trading down by $9.10 and fixed at $1,191.80. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), dollar strength accounts for $4.45 of today’s drawdown with selling pressure adding another $4.65. As reported in Reuters today, “Gold slipped on Tuesday as concerns over an escalating... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/gold-futures-break-below-1200
Views: 55 The Gold Forecast
Lower Gold Prices Today Complete Death Cross Pattern - 06/25/2018
Gold futures closed down $3.10 today, with the August Comex contract currently fixed at $1,267.60. This three-dollar decline completed a pattern that we identified last week called a "death cross". A "death cross" is created when the shorter-term moving average crosses below the longer-term moving average. This pattern is created from a 200 and a 50-day moving average. As such, these time parameters for each moving average are used to gauge short and long-term market trends. The short-term average crossing below the long-term average can signal the point in time in which a short-term correction has... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/lower-gold-prices-today-complete-death-cross-pattern
Views: 69 The Gold Forecast
Editor's Cut : Gold Flirts with $1300 And Trades to a New Yearly High - 04/21/2017
This edition of the weekend review is greatly enhanced through the use of call outs and post production editing ________________________________________________________________ For market participants who invest or trade gold, it has been an interesting week. Although gold prices traded to a higher high and a lower low than the previous week, the net change overall was a fractional loss of approximately one dollar. The week started off with gold prices flirting with $1300 as gold pricing surged intra-day to $1297. Gold was unable to hold those gains, and by the close had traded back to $1284. Wednesday contained the single largest price decline this week, trading to the weekly low at $1274 before recovering to $1280, a loss of $10 on the day. The geopolitical turmoil which existed last week seems to have subsided, at least in the short term. Since North Korea continues to ratchet up its rhetoric aggressively, China has entered the arena and placed some pressure on the North Koreans to curtail their nuclear proliferation plans. This marked a critical change in Chinese global policies and allowed market participants to focus on other events. As reported by MarketWatch, “I think the big rally last week off $1,200 priced in a lot of the current political uncertainties,” Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, told MarketWatch. “There hasn’t been anything new other than the attack in France to change the political outlook over the last 48 hours and even then, the election result is a toss-up.” This week both Britain and France moved to the forefront of geopolitical events that could affect precious metal pricing next week. On Sunday French citizens will go to the polls, and if no candidate gains more than 50%, there will be a final vote which will take place on May 7th. According to Myra Saefong and William Watts of MarketWatch, “The vote is the latest test of nationalist sentiment following last year’s vote by the U.K. to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory last November. A strong showing by anti-European Union candidates, right-wing National Front Leader Marine Le Pen or left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, could spark a near-term global scramble for havens like gold, analysts said.” The Technical Indicators Speak for Themselves Based upon our current technical studies, it is quite evident that $1300 is the current minor level of resistance in gold. While it seems highly probable that gold will breach 1300 over the next couple of weeks, there is major resistance at $1320. Our studies also indicate that there is a level of minor support at 1278, as well as major support for gold pricing at 1261. Wishing you as always, good trading, Gary S. Wagner - Executive Producer
Views: 706 The Gold Forecast
The Rounded Bottom of a Tower Pattern - 06/22/2017
Gold futures have settled with moderate gains on the day. The most active August contract closed at $1250.90, up approximately $5.10. This gain occurs immediately following two trading days in which the lows have been at the 200-day moving average, and their respective closing prices were below the 61.8% retracement. As such, the last four days, as seen through the eyes of Japanese candlesticks, can be identified by two distinct candlestick patterns. Both patterns indicate support and a potential bottom concluding the recent price decline. The first pattern is simply called “tweezer bottoms” and... Read more https://thegoldforecast.com/video/rounded-bottom-tower-pattern
Views: 100 The Gold Forecast